One dollar! Okay, maybe not, at least not any time in the near future. But after Monday’s surprise $70 price cut on the Kindle 2–which makes it $10 less than the Nook from Barnes & Noble–pundits and analysts are wondering whether consumers can expect even lower prices in the coming months. So am I. Maybe you are too, if you’re thinking about buying a Kindle in the near future.
Clearly I have no authoritative answer to that question, but as a nerd who is constantly sucking up information on the Kindle and its competition, I do have opinions! That’s sort of the whole point of blogging, after all.
Here then are the things I’ve been thinking about with respect to how low the price can go this year on the Kindle 2.
There’s at least one new Kindle model likely to be released by August or September.
That means there’s at least a slim chance that Amazon will introduce a cheaper model without Whispernet.
As far as consumer choice, currently you’ve got the $400+ giant DX or the sub-$200 Kindle 2, or free software to use on devices you already own. But Barnes & Noble now offers a $150 Wi-Fi only Nook, which I imagine would be just fine for a lot of people. Heck, if I could have saved $50 and opted for Wi-Fi only over Whispernet on my Kindle 2 last year, I would have done it. I just don’t shop online enough to justify Whispernet’s almost-anywhere capabilities.
It’s unlikely that the new model will be more expensive than the Kindle 2, given that it’s almost certainly not going to offer a color display or touch-screen technology.
Now Amazon and Jeff Bezos could be faking us all out in order to throw off the competition, and this hypothetical Kindle 3 (that’s what I’ll call it for now) might be some superslick multi-touch color ebook device, but I doubt it. There’s no point in trying to take on the iPad, which is a different product category entirely, and as long as Amazon keeps improving its line of Kindle software for other devices it can keep enough readers happy to stick with a more modest screen for now–at least until the technology improves and gets cheaper.
That leaves only a few areas where it can offer improvements: speed, screen resolution, number of shades of gray, weight and size, and wireless connectivity.
It is possible, then, that Amazon may offer a Wi-Fi version and a Whispernet version (which may or may not include Wi-Fi), and create two price points for the Kindle 3.
Let’s assume this forthcoming Kindle 3 is slimmer, lighter, and faster than the Kindle 2. That’s all good, but not enough to sway someone who’s eyeing the Wi-Fi-only Nook model perhaps.
If Amazon would also offer a Wi-Fi-only model at a lower price, this would put it in a more competitive place with Barnes & Noble–especially if Amazon can beat that $150 price point for a Wi-Fi-only Kindle. But who knows whether this will happen.
Of course, the other possibility is that Amazon will offer a Whispernet version at today’s price point and a Whispernet+Wi-Fi version for more money, but I don’t think that’s likely to happen. If Amazon did that, it would immediately lose its pricing edge over the Nook.
About a year ago, iSupply put the production cost of the Kindle at about $185. Amazon and its competition may not have much room to go lower.
Although it’s probably that cost per unit has dropped since then, it still doesn’t leave much room for Amazon to slash further before it hits the floor. That also hints that unless Barnes & Noble or a competitor wants to lose money, prices for other devices won’t drop much below $150 either.
Taking all that into consideration, if I were currently in the market for a Kindle, here’s what I would do: I would wait until the end of summer to see whether Amazon releases a cheap Wi-Fi-only version, and if it was priced within $10 of the Wi-Fi Nook, I’d buy it.
If September comes and nothing is announced, I’d probably buy the current $189 Kindle 2, and keep my fingers crossed that Amazon released a new version within the 30 day return period so I could swap out if I wanted to.
And otherwise, if I could make do with Kindle software on my netbook or smartphone, I would just wait until the Thanksgiving-Christmas shopping season and see whether Amazon offers any sort of holiday deal.
(Photo: timparkinson)
Just how cheap will the Kindle get?
Clearly I have no authoritative answer to that question, but as a nerd who is constantly sucking up information on the Kindle and its competition, I do have opinions! That’s sort of the whole point of blogging, after all.
Here then are the things I’ve been thinking about with respect to how low the price can go this year on the Kindle 2.
There’s at least one new Kindle model likely to be released by August or September.
That means there’s at least a slim chance that Amazon will introduce a cheaper model without Whispernet.
As far as consumer choice, currently you’ve got the $400+ giant DX or the sub-$200 Kindle 2, or free software to use on devices you already own. But Barnes & Noble now offers a $150 Wi-Fi only Nook, which I imagine would be just fine for a lot of people. Heck, if I could have saved $50 and opted for Wi-Fi only over Whispernet on my Kindle 2 last year, I would have done it. I just don’t shop online enough to justify Whispernet’s almost-anywhere capabilities.
It’s unlikely that the new model will be more expensive than the Kindle 2, given that it’s almost certainly not going to offer a color display or touch-screen technology.
Now Amazon and Jeff Bezos could be faking us all out in order to throw off the competition, and this hypothetical Kindle 3 (that’s what I’ll call it for now) might be some superslick multi-touch color ebook device, but I doubt it. There’s no point in trying to take on the iPad, which is a different product category entirely, and as long as Amazon keeps improving its line of Kindle software for other devices it can keep enough readers happy to stick with a more modest screen for now–at least until the technology improves and gets cheaper.
That leaves only a few areas where it can offer improvements: speed, screen resolution, number of shades of gray, weight and size, and wireless connectivity.
It is possible, then, that Amazon may offer a Wi-Fi version and a Whispernet version (which may or may not include Wi-Fi), and create two price points for the Kindle 3.
Let’s assume this forthcoming Kindle 3 is slimmer, lighter, and faster than the Kindle 2. That’s all good, but not enough to sway someone who’s eyeing the Wi-Fi-only Nook model perhaps.
If Amazon would also offer a Wi-Fi-only model at a lower price, this would put it in a more competitive place with Barnes & Noble–especially if Amazon can beat that $150 price point for a Wi-Fi-only Kindle. But who knows whether this will happen.
Of course, the other possibility is that Amazon will offer a Whispernet version at today’s price point and a Whispernet+Wi-Fi version for more money, but I don’t think that’s likely to happen. If Amazon did that, it would immediately lose its pricing edge over the Nook.
About a year ago, iSupply put the production cost of the Kindle at about $185. Amazon and its competition may not have much room to go lower.
Although it’s probably that cost per unit has dropped since then, it still doesn’t leave much room for Amazon to slash further before it hits the floor. That also hints that unless Barnes & Noble or a competitor wants to lose money, prices for other devices won’t drop much below $150 either.
Taking all that into consideration, if I were currently in the market for a Kindle, here’s what I would do: I would wait until the end of summer to see whether Amazon releases a cheap Wi-Fi-only version, and if it was priced within $10 of the Wi-Fi Nook, I’d buy it.
If September comes and nothing is announced, I’d probably buy the current $189 Kindle 2, and keep my fingers crossed that Amazon released a new version within the 30 day return period so I could swap out if I wanted to.
And otherwise, if I could make do with Kindle software on my netbook or smartphone, I would just wait until the Thanksgiving-Christmas shopping season and see whether Amazon offers any sort of holiday deal.
(Photo: timparkinson)